According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), as of yesterday (April 2), buying pressure dominated the global raw material market, with 18 commodities increasing in price and 13 decreasing, supporting the MXV-Index's rise by 0.77% to 2,265 points, the highest in over six months. The coffee, metals, and energy sectors all recorded several commodities reaching peak prices in recent weeks.

Additionally, the total trading value on the Exchange saw a significant increase of nearly 40%, reaching VND 8.3 trillion, the highest in three weeks. Investment continued to focus on agricultural products, accounting for nearly 38% of the total market trading volume. Furthermore, trading in energy and industrial sectors also stabilized after two consecutive public holidays.

Robusta Coffee Hits New 30-Year High

Both coffee types received strong buying interest, leading market trends yesterday. As of April 2, the May futures price for Robusta coffee on ICE US surged 5.29% to $3,663 per ton, setting a new 30-year peak. Similarly, the Arabica coffee futures for the same month on ICE EU increased 3.1%, closing at $4,359 per ton, the highest in three months.

With limited supply in Vietnam driving coffee prices up since the beginning of the year, the latest data suggests that Brazil’s supply outlook is falling short of expectations, further driving up coffee prices.

Hedgepoint recently reduced its estimate for Brazil’s 2024-2025 coffee production to 67.46 million bags, down 4.9% from previous forecasts, including a 1.43 million-bag reduction in Robusta coffee production.

Previously, Rabobank estimated Brazil's new coffee crop at 69.8 million bags, falling short of the potential for a peak season in its biennial cycle. Specifically, Robusta production in the South American country is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year at 23.3 million bags.

Additionally, the Dollar Index dropped by 0.20%, which previously caused the USD/BRL exchange rate to fall during coffee trading. The lower exchange rate is expected to reduce Brazilian farmers' coffee sales, increasing buying pressure in the market.

In the domestic market, as of April 2, the price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces has approached VND 100,000 per kilogram, ranging from VND 98,200 to VND 98,800. Given that Brazil’s supply might not compensate for the shortfall from Vietnam, MXV anticipates that domestic coffee purchase prices have room to set new records above VND 100,000 per kilogram in the near future.

Silver Hits 3-Month High

At the close of trading on April 2, all metal commodities, except lead on LME, saw price increases. For precious metals, amid a weakening USD and increased investment in safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, both silver and platinum experienced significant gains. Silver surged 3.39% to $25.9 per ounce, the highest since early December last year. This was also the strongest increase in silver prices since October 2023. Platinum rose 2.51% to $934.3 per ounce, the highest in over two weeks.

According to Reuters, Israeli fighter jets bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria on Monday. This may escalate tensions in the Middle East, driving more investment into safe-haven assets, including precious metals.

Additionally, the weakening USD further bolstered demand for precious metals. The Dollar Index dropped 0.2% to 104.75 points, breaking a four-session streak of gains due to negative US employment data. Specifically, the Labor Statistics Bureau reported that job openings in the US, a measure of labor demand, reached 8.756 million at the end of February, lower than forecasted, while January’s figure was revised down to 8.748 million.

For base metals, key commodities like COMEX copper and iron ore maintained their price increases since China released positive economic data, boosting consumption prospects. By the end of the session, copper and iron ore prices increased by 0.54% and 0.23%, reaching $8,973.91 per ton and $101.56 per ton, respectively. These were also the highest closing prices for copper in two weeks.

However, copper price gains faced resistance due to some positive supply news. Specifically, in Chile, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the world's copper supply, mining output is starting to recover after several months of decline, with total nationwide production increasing by 7.7% compared to the same period in February. The biggest contribution to this increase was a 9.95% rise in copper production to 420,242 tons.

Source: MXV