Experts report that the recruitment rate for oil tankers has increased by 5% since ships began avoiding the Red Sea. However, only two new supertankers joined the global fleet in 2024.

The Red Sea crisis highlights the long-standing shortage of oil tankers, as the industry has long warned about the insufficient number of new vessels being built. This situation is causing a significant shift in global oil trading patterns.

In 2023, oil transport volumes remained low due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+. This prevented the shortage of tankers from becoming apparent. Concurrently, the accelerated energy transition is diminishing the long-term outlook for the fossil fuel industry.

Since November 2023, Houthi forces in Yemen began attacking container ships in the Red Sea, forcing many ship owners to seek longer alternative routes. This has highlighted the lack of new shipping capacity, leading to increased freight rates and longer transit times.

According to OPEC statistics, only two new supertankers joined the global fleet in 2024, the lowest number in nearly four decades, and 90% lower than the average for this millennium. Data from Banchero Costa predicts that by 2025, only five new tankers will join the global fleet, significantly lower than the 42 vessels delivered in 2022.

Although recent orders for new ships have increased, it will take years for shipyards to fulfill these orders, including those for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which were placed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Enrico Paglia, a senior analyst at Banchero Costa, notes that the oil tanker market is under severe strain, particularly for crude oil tankers. He emphasizes that the situation will likely remain tense in the future.

The oil tanker market saw a boom in 2020 as demand surged, prompting oil traders to seek every available tanker for at-sea storage. However, OPEC's production cuts led to reduced oil shipping activity.

By 2022, the global oil flow began to shift following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with shipments to Europe taking weeks instead of days as they had to reroute around the Baltic Sea.

The recent disruptions in the Red Sea have exacerbated the issue, increasing transit times. Fotios Katsoulas, a senior analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, reports a 5% increase in tanker recruitment since ships began avoiding the Red Sea, indicating a shift in market fundamentals that benefits tanker operators.

Alexander Saverys, CEO of Euronav NV, one of the largest oil transport companies in the world, states that the directional shift is evident in daily shipping operations and particularly affects crude oil and petroleum product transport. The combination of fewer new ships and an aging fleet presents a positive outlook for oil transport companies.

Source: Vietstock