Some markets have been trying to account for the possibility of an extremely uncertain election. Gold prices have reached new highs, while equities have adjusted downward. Meanwhile, many physical commodities remain under pressure due to concerns over declining demand, oversupply, and a stronger USD.

Another negative factor is the lack of confidence in the Chinese economy, despite its implementation of stimulus measures and interest rate cuts. The credit market is anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Inflation remains under control (but shows no signs of further decline), economic indicators are positive, and market sentiment remains stable, even as a historic shift is expected this week.

It is no surprise that after U.S. stock markets broke historical records in August, surged through mid-October, and are now experiencing sell-offs for profit-taking and a shift toward risk aversion.

History shows that stock markets are often unstable during periods of significant uncertainty. With many market indices recently reaching record highs, profit-taking or panic selling tends to have a significant impact. Furthermore, increased uncertainty usually supports the "bearish camp" for physical commodities. When combined with USD movements, this could push energy, industrial materials, copper, grains, livestock, and even natural gas below their fair value.

In previous elections, the prices of physical commodities (measured by the S&P GSCI index) have risen.

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