Soybeans

The "bull market" was dominant today. News about China preparing a $200 billion stimulus package attracted additional buying interest. Additionally, reports of China purchasing U.S. PNW corn, U.S. PNW white wheat, and U.S. sorghum from the Gulf supported demand. Although China did not purchase U.S. soybeans, higher crushing margins and increased hog numbers contributed to further buying interest.

The current key factors for commodities include the U.S. dollar remaining low, higher and stable demand in China, higher copper prices, and the Fed adopting a more "dovish" stance. Some believe that funds are reluctant to buy commodities until a recession actually materializes. Funds are also quite patient in purchasing soybeans, waiting for the U.S. export sales report tomorrow, amid concerns that U.S. export sales may be less favorable. Trade estimates suggest old crop sales could range from 300 million to 300 million bushels, while new crop sales might be between 100 and 300 million bushels. On average, the forecast for U.S. ending stocks for the 2021/22 soybean crop is 210 million bushels compared to the USDA’s forecast of 205 million bushels, with the 2022/23 forecast at 207 million bushels compared to the USDA’s 280 million bushels.