Vietnam's coffee production forecast for the 2024/25 season remains nearly unchanged at 29 million bags, with over 95% being Robusta. Coffee bean exports are expected to decrease by nearly 500,000 bags to 24.4 million bags due to a reduced overall supply and increased domestic consumption.

In a recent report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production for the 2024/25 season is forecasted to increase by 7.1 million bags (1 bag = 60 kg) compared to the previous year, reaching 176.2 million bags, driven by a recovery in production in Brazil and Indonesia. Consequently, global exports are projected to rise by 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million bags, primarily due to strong exports from Indonesia and Brazil. Global consumption is expected to grow by 3.1 million bags to 170.6 million bags, with ending stocks projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 25.8 million bags after three years of decline.

Source: USDA

Vietnam's coffee production forecast remains at 29 million bags, with over 95% being Robusta. The slightly delayed rainy season and above-average temperatures in many areas have adversely affected yields. Similar conditions in the previous two harvests have reduced yields and production. Coffee bean exports are expected to drop by nearly 500,000 bags to 24.4 million bags due to reduced overall supply and increased domestic consumption.

The decline in groundwater levels and forest cover poses long-term challenges, as Vietnamese coffee farmers rely on well water for irrigation, while forest cover helps slow evaporation.

In response, provincial Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development, along with the Central Highlands Institute of Agriculture and Forestry Science, have implemented strategies to promote sustainable coffee production. These plans include replacing old coffee trees with new varieties, intercropping to increase shade and retain water, adopting water-saving irrigation systems, and certifying farms for sustainable practices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, about 30% of coffee plantations are now certified as sustainable.

In Brazil, both Arabica and Robusta coffee production is forecasted to increase by 3.6 million bags to 69.9 million bags for the 2024/25 season. Arabica coffee production is expected to improve by 3.3 million bags to 48.2 million bags, while Robusta coffee production is projected to increase by 300,000 bags to 21.7 million bags.

Source: USDA

High temperatures at the end of 2023 caused some coffee cherries to drop during formation. However, subsequent favorable rainfall provided ideal conditions for the final development of cherries, leading to increased yields.

With higher supply, coffee bean exports are forecasted to increase by 1 million bags to 42.5 million bags, and ending stocks are expected to rise by nearly 700,000 bags to 3.5 million bags.

The USDA also provided forecasts for other regions such as Colombia, Central America, and Mexico. Colombian Arabica coffee production is forecasted to rise by 200,000 bags to 12.4 million bags due to slightly higher yields, although production is expected to be lower than recent highs due to an increase in coffee borer beetle infestations. Coffee bean exports, mainly to the U.S. and the European Union (EU), are forecasted to rise by 200,000 bags to 10.8 million bags due to higher supply.

Central America and Mexico's production is forecasted to increase by 300,000 bags to 16.6 million bags, with Arabica coffee accounting for 95% of production. Nicaragua's production is expected to rise by nearly 300,000 bags to 2.7 million bags, while Mexico's production is projected to increase by only 30,000 bags to 3.9 million bags. Production in other regions such as Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama is expected to remain unchanged. Coffee exports from the region are forecasted to increase by 500,000 bags to 13.4 million bags due to a slight increase in supply.

For Indonesia, coffee production (both Arabica and Robusta) is forecasted to recover by nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million bags. Robusta coffee production is expected to recover from 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million bags due to favorable growing conditions in the lowlands of southern Sumatra and Java, where about 75% of coffee is grown. Arabica coffee production is projected to increase slightly to 1.4 million bags. The increased production is expected to boost exports to 6.5 million bags.

Source: USDA

In India, USDA forecasts a coffee harvest (both Arabica and Robusta) decline of 100,000 bags to 6 million bags due to a decrease in Arabica production to 1.4 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee production is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6 million bags. Coffee bean exports are forecasted to decrease slightly to 4.2 million bags due to lower production.

Regarding major global importers, the EU's imports are forecasted to increase by 2 million bags to 47.5 million bags, primarily from Brazil and Indonesia. Major suppliers in calendar year 2023 include Brazil (36%), Vietnam (25%), Uganda (8%), and Honduras (7%). Ending stocks are projected to rise by 2.1 million bags to 11.6 million bags.

For the U.S., the second-largest coffee importer globally, imports are forecasted to reach 24.5 million bags, an increase of 900,000 bags from the previous season due to increased consumption. Major suppliers in calendar year 2023 include Brazil (27%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (11%), and Guatemala (6%). Ending stocks are forecasted to remain unchanged at 5.7 million bags.

According to USDA