Last week, except for the industrial materials sector and a few metals which saw price increases, the global raw material markets were dominated by declines. This indicates a clear divergence in the market by commodity groups, with supply and demand factors for each commodity having a greater impact than geopolitical or macroeconomic information.

The MXV-Index commodity index closed the week down 0.4%, at 2,099 points. However, overall trading value on the exchange remained stable at 5.1 trillion VND per day, due to the ability to trade in both buying and selling directions.

A notable highlight of the week was the nearly 24% drop in February futures natural gas listed on the NYMEX, falling to 2.52 USD per million British thermal units, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. MXV reported that lower-than-expected demand in the U.S. and Europe during the peak consumption season was the cause of this drop.

Specifically, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that utilities withdrew 154 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, lower than the 164 billion cubic feet decrease forecasted by Reuters.

Additionally, Reuters forecasted that U.S. natural gas demand, including exports, will drop from 154.1 billion cubic feet last week to 139.9 billion cubic feet this week.

In a contrasting development, in the industrial materials market, the price of sugar 11 surged more than 9%, and white sugar increased by over 7%. Robusta coffee and cocoa also closed the week up by 6% compared to the reference.

Thus, Robusta coffee is approaching its highest price in 16 years due to Red Sea tensions disrupting supply activities between leading Robusta producers and consumers.

In the domestic market, it was reported this morning that the price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces rose sharply by 1,400 – 1,500 VND/kg compared to last week, bringing the domestic coffee buying price to 72,200 – 72,900 VND/kg. Therefore, domestic coffee prices have doubled in just one year.

Providing information that investors should note for this week, MXV stated that there will be no significant reports this week, so the U.S. GDP data for Q4, to be released on January 25, will play a crucial role, completing the picture of the U.S. economy for 2023. After an impressive 4.9% growth in Q3, the Q4 U.S. GDP is forecasted to increase by only 1.8%, which could be considered a negative number, putting pressure on many commodities such as energy, metals, and macro-sensitive products like coffee, cocoa, rubber,...