According to experts, the rate of oil tanker utilization has increased by 5% since ships started avoiding the Red Sea. However, only two supertankers have joined the global oil tanker fleet in 2024.

The crisis in the Red Sea is exacerbating the shortage of oil tankers, as the industry has long warned about the insufficient number of new ships being built.

This is causing a significant shift in global oil trading patterns.

In 2023, due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, the amount of oil transported was low, leading to an unrecognized shortage of tankers.

At the same time, the ongoing energy transition means that a future without fossil fuels is approaching, casting a shadow over the long-term prospects of the oil industry.

However, since November 2023, when Houthi forces in Yemen began attacking container ships passing through the Red Sea, many ship owners have been forced to seek longer alternative routes.

In this context, the lack of shipping capacity has become more evident, increasing freight rates and extending transit times.

According to OPEC statistics, only two supertankers have joined the global fleet in 2024. This is the lowest number of new tankers in nearly four decades, 90% below the average for this millennium.

Data from the research firm Banchero Costa indicates that by 2025, only five new tankers are expected to join the global fleet. This is a significant drop from the 42 new ships delivered in 2022.

Although recent orders for new ships have increased, it will take several more years for shipyards to fulfill all the orders placed during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as orders for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers.

Enrico Paglia, a senior researcher at Banchero Costa, a maritime services company, comments that the situation in the oil tanker market is very tense, especially for crude oil tankers.

Regarding the industry's outlook, Paglia emphasizes: “It will be even more strained in the future.”

The oil tanker market boomed in 2020 as demand for these vessels surged, leading oil traders to seek every available ship for oil storage at sea. However, OPEC's production cuts resulted in reduced oil transportation activities.

By 2022, global oil flows began to change following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Shipments to Europe, which previously took a few days via the Baltic Sea, now take weeks to reach other parts of the world.

Recent disruptions in the Red Sea have worsened the problem, further extending shipping times.

According to expert Fotios Katsoulas, a principal analyst for oil tanker shipping services at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the utilization rate of tankers—a measure of how much of the tanker fleet is used at any given time—has increased by 5% since ships began avoiding the Red Sea.

He notes that the Red Sea crisis is altering market fundamentals and is benefiting ship operators.

Alexander Saverys, CEO of Euronav NV, one of the largest oil shipping companies in the world, states that the impact of rerouting is observed daily in general shipping activities and specifically in crude oil and oil product transport.

According to Saverys, the combination of fewer new ships and an aging fleet provides a positive outlook for oil shipping businesses.

Source: Vietstock