This is the assessment made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the Grain: World Market and Trade report released on the evening of August 12

India’s role as a key supplier to the global grains market has diminished over the past 3 years as strong  domestic demand and government policies keep domestic supplies within the country. From trade year (TY) 2020/21 to 2023/24, corn exports are estimated to decline 86 percent, rice exports 20 percent, and  wheat exports 90 percent. India is exporting half the volume of grains compared to record shipments in  2021/22. Government ethanol policy and growing poultry demand for corn, export restrictions for certain types of rice, and an export ban for wheat have all contributed to the change in India’s grain  trade environment and will continue to impact the outlook for 2024/25.  

The largest shift in India grains trade is for corn. In 2023/24, India is on pace to lose its position as a net  exporter for the first time this century. A surge in demand for feed, primarily from India’s poultry sector,  along with domestic policy incentivizing corn for ethanol production have largely kept supplies in country and spurred India to begin importing for the first time since 2019/20. Additionally, a 15 percent  year over year decline in global corn prices have made Indian exports less competitive and further  supported favorably priced corn imports.

India has been the largest exporter of rice over the past decade. The government’s decision to ban  exports of some types of rice (albeit with a considerable number of exemptions) and apply export taxes to others has disrupted the global market. When India implemented the ban, rice prices spiked before  eventually easing as competitors increased exports. Despite large stocks, the ban on regular white rice  exports remains in place, prompting importers to shift to other suppliers such as Vietnam and Thailand.

India has had negligible wheat exports since it implemented an export ban on wheat grain in May 2022.  The ban was implemented to quell high prices, prioritize domestic consumption after a surge in exports and a smaller crop, and stabilize stocks. With strong consumption, wheat ending stocks in 2023/24 dwindled to the lowest level in over 15 years. With little growth in supplies, flour millers have requested  a waiver of the wheat import tariff (40 percent) to enable imports.

Source: USDA