Soybeans

The "bull market" prevails today. Information about China planning to introduce a $200 billion stimulus package has attracted new buying interest in the market. Additionally, news about China purchasing PNW corn from the U.S., PNW wheat from the U.S., and Gulf sorghum from the U.S. has further supported demand. Although China is not buying U.S. soybeans, higher crushing margins and a larger pig herd have contributed to boosting new buying interest.

The key factors currently affecting commodities are the low U.S. dollar, higher and stable demand in China, higher copper prices, and a more dovish Fed. There is some sentiment that funds are not interested in buying commodities until a real recession appears. Funds are also quite patient in buying soybeans, awaiting the U.S. export sales report tomorrow as they are concerned that U.S. export sales will be less positive. Trade estimates suggest that old crop sales could range from -300 to 300, while new crop sales are expected to be between 100-300 million bushels. The average forecast for U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2021/22 season is 210 million bushels, compared to the USDA's forecast of 205 million bushels, and for the 2022/23 season, it is 207 million bushels compared to the USDA's 280 million bushels.